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Ripple’s XRP might be trending towards a short squeeze as new analysis suggested its available trading supply could shrink to levels comparable to Bitcoin’s 21 million cap. XRP commentator Chad Steingraber, in a post on social media platform X, argued that the amount of the altcoin actually available for retail trading is going to be a fraction of its total supply. 

His comments came in response to discussions about the role of institutional and network-led lockups, with projects such as Axelar and Flare Networks working to secure billions of XRP tokens.

XRP Might Be Gearing Up For Short Squeeze

The discussion began after a popular crypto commentator posted about Axelar’s plan to lock up $10 billion worth of XRP, a move that would remove around 5% of the token available to retail traders. Similarly, Flare Networks has set a goal of locking up 5 billion XRP. These two initiatives alone would place significant pressure on the pool of XRP available for active trading.

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Steingraber noted that XRP’s active trading supply is what ultimately influences market pricing, not the total supply figure often cited. As such, he suggested that such accumulation by these companies, combined with other supply constraints, could reduce the number of the token available for public trading. 

Particularly, Steingraber predicted that this number could fall drastically to as low as 21 million XRP, an amount symbolically identical to Bitcoin’s hard cap.

The possibility of only 21 million XRP being available for trading from its current circulating supply of 59 billion tokens is very ambitious. However, the scenario of this drastic fall becomes possible if Spot XRP ETFs are approved in the United States. 

Institutional ETFs would demand a steady supply of XRP for custody, and this would create large-scale accumulation that could permanently restrict availability on exchanges. In such a case, supply shocks could become very common.

Aside from new institutional lockups, there are other clear signs that XRP’s active trading pool is thinning. A notable example is crypto exchange Coinbase, where XRP reserves have dropped sharply in recent months. 

Adding to that, Ripple itself still controls a large portion of the total supply, with billions of the token locked in escrow. Although these tokens are technically part of circulation, they are unavailable for retail use and are released only under strict schedules.

Price Impact Of A 21 Million Effective Supply

The idea that XRP’s active trading supply could fall to just 21 million tokens shows how scarcity could alter its valuation. Based on today’s circulating supply of about 59 billion XRP and a market price of $2.89, XRP has a market capitalization of about $172.8 billion. If that same market capitalization were concentrated into only 21 million tokens, the implied price per coin would be about $8,120. 

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The most important thing now, however, is for the altcoin bulls to prevent any further declines below $2.8.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP has entered a pivotal phase as institutional adoption increases and regulatory clarity reshapes its market prospects.

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The resolution of Ripple’s case with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in March 2025 cleared a long-standing obstacle, confirming that XRP is not a security in secondary transactions. This milestone has motivated major institutions to get involved.

XRP ETF Launch and Institutional Catalysts Drive Rally

The debut of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) marked a notable regulatory shift, with $37.7 million in first-day trading volume.

BlackRock’s partnership with Ripple on its RLUSD stablecoin and Ripple’s application for Federal Reserve payment access through a national trust bank charter showcase the project’s growing institutional presence.

Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity network, which processed $1.3 trillion in Q2 2025, further strengthens XRP’s role in cross-border settlements.

September’s rally saw XRP rise by 385%, stabilizing between $2.86 and $2.87 while whales accumulated tens of millions of tokens.

With six more ETF applications pending approval in October and CME preparing to list XRP options on October 13, the token’s bullish catalysts remain strong.

Analysts project medium- to long-term price targets ranging from $5 to $22, with some anticipating $30 or higher by 2026.

XRP's price trends sideways on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

XRP remains above its $2.80 support level, even as volatility continues. Resistance is forming around $3.00, with a breakout likely to pave the way toward $3.40, $4.00, and ultimately $5. Surpassing the $5 mark could boost momentum toward $7.

On the downside, immediate support is at $2.60, with further levels at $2.25 and $2.00. Technical indicators are still favorable, with the CCI (50) and Directional Movement Index indicating bullish signs. Traders are considering dip-buying around $2.60, with stop losses near $2.00 and profit targets between $4 and $5.

Whale Influence and ETF Scrutiny

Despite rising institutional confidence, concerns over concentrated XRP ownership persist. The recent Cyber Hornet ETF filing with the SEC flagged whale dominance as a potential risk, arguing that large holders retain the power to influence price movements disproportionately.

Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, XRP’s pre-minted supply structure increases liquidity concerns, making it more vulnerable to large transactions. Regulators worldwide have taken notice, with high-value transfers now under closer scrutiny.

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Nonetheless, the growing number of institutional products and consistent retail participation suggest that XRP is poised to maintain its momentum, even as debates around whale activity persist.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from TradingView

Dogecoin is pressing on a familiar technical hinge on the weekly chart. In a setup highlighted by crypto analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), DOGE has completed a third multi-month descending trendline test in as many cycles, with price now hovering just below a quarter dollar after a brief breakout and early retest.

On the 1-week timeframe, the chart shows three distinct bear-market trendlines and subsequent expansions. The first downtrend, drawn from late-2022 swing highs through mid-2023 lower highs, was broken in September 2023. From that breakout point, DOGE advanced roughly 230%, marking the cycle’s initial expansion phase.

The second sequence repeated across late-2023 into 2024: an April–June 2024 distribution created a fresh descending line that capped price through October 2024, when a weekly close through the line triggered the next impulse. From that October 2024 breakout, the advance extended about 350% into the late-2024 peak.

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Price action since the November–December 2024 high near $0.48 carved the third descending trendline. Over the past several candles, DOGE pushed through that line, then slipped back toward it, producing a classic “return move” on reduced momentum. As of the chart’s timestamp (Sep. 29, 2025, 00:04 UTC), DOGE trades around $0.2369 on the weekly, a level that sits in the middle of this retest zone.

Golden Cross Or One More Dip For Dogecoin?

Crypto analyst Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) is closely monitoring the daily chart, where a golden cross between the 100-day SMA ($0.2192) and the 200-day EMA ($0.2199) is forming. Historically, such crossovers have signaled the beginning of extended bullish phases.

Abbé stressed the broader market impact of a Dogecoin rally, noting: “DOGE golden cross is approaching soon. This is one of the alts I’m paying very close attention to. The reason is very simple: When DOGE pumps, Altseason starts.” His key threshold is $0.33, a resistance level that has capped multiple rallies. A clean break above it could accelerate capital rotation into the broader altcoin market. “If DOGE manages to pump above $0.33, alts will go bonkers,” he noted.

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Meanwhile, liquidity dynamics add nuance to the technical picture. Cryptoinsightuk (@Cryptoinsightuk) shared a liquidity heatmap indicating dense bids around $0.18, while supply concentrations above $0.30 form notable resistance zones. He explained his tactical approach: “Because of this I’ve closed my DOGE long slightly in the green and I’ve placed bids around $0.18.” This reflects a market structure where traders are positioning for downside liquidity sweeps before potential continuation higher.

Currently trading near $0.229, DOGE sits at the intersection of conflicting signals. On one side, the historical pattern of breakouts from descending trendlines, the imminent golden cross, and Abbé’s $0.33 breakout level argue for bullish continuation. On the other, liquidity maps suggest vulnerability to deeper retracements toward $0.20–0.18 before any sustained rally.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The SEC backed off from DePIN tokens in a rare no-action letter, as the agency’s top brass says it’s not meant to “regulate all economic activity.”

SOL’s faces a fresh wave of challenges from competing blockchains, and the path to $250 depends on a potential spot ETF approval and institutional inflows.

Binance is offering crypto-as-a-service for TradFi institutions, providing access to its spot and futures markets, liquidity pools, custody, and compliance tools.

SOL traders saw the drop to $190 as the perfect buy opportunity and with the SEC set to decide on Solana ETFs by October 10, the altcoin could be en-route to new highs.